Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
