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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still