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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."